Today Soccer Schedule

Premier League2 matches

League Standings

Pos	Team	GP	Pts	W	D	L	GD	GF:GA
1	Arsenal	35	76	23	7	5	41	67:26
2	Manchester City	33	70	21	7	5	37	66:29
3	Manchester United	35	64	18	10	7	15	63:48
4	Liverpool	35	58	17	7	11	12	59:47
5	Aston Villa	35	58	17	7	11	4	48:44
6	AFC Bournemouth	35	52	12	16	7	3	55:52
7	Brentford	35	51	14	9	12	6	52:46
8	Brighton & Hove Albion	35	50	13	11	11	7	49:42
9	Chelsea	34	48	13	9	12	8	53:45
10	Fulham	35	48	14	6	15	-5	44:49
11	Everton	34	47	13	8	13	0	41:41
12	Sunderland	35	47	12	11	12	-9	37:46
13	Newcastle United	35	45	13	6	16	-2	49:51
14	Leeds United	35	43	10	13	12	-5	47:52
15	Crystal Palace	34	43	11	10	13	-6	36:42
16	Nottingham Forest	34	39	10	9	15	-4	41:45
17	Tottenham Hotspur	35	37	9	10	16	-9	45:54
18	West Ham United	35	36	9	9	17	-19	42:61
19	Burnley	35	20	4	8	23	-36	35:71
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	35	18	3	9	23	-38	25:63

2026-05-04 17:00 EESTChelsea vs Nottingham ForestMon, May 4th at 10:00 AM EDT

Last 25 Games Played - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-26	Leeds United	Home	W	1-0	401867653
2026-04-21	Brighton & Hove Albion	Away	L	0-3	740928
2026-04-18	Manchester United	Home	L	0-1	740922
2026-04-12	Manchester City	Home	L	0-3	740909
2026-04-04	Port Vale	Home	W	7-0	401864076
2026-03-21	Everton	Away	L	0-3	740899
2026-03-17	Paris Saint-Germain	Home	L	0-3	401862648
2026-03-14	Newcastle United	Home	L	0-1	740889
2026-03-11	Paris Saint-Germain	Away	L	2-5	401862646
2026-03-07	Wrexham	Away	W	4-2	401861589
2026-03-04	Aston Villa	Away	W	4-1	740876
2026-03-01	Arsenal	Away	L	1-2	740871
2026-02-21	Burnley	Home	D	1-1	740864
2026-02-13	Hull City	Away	W	4-0	401850946
2026-02-10	Leeds United	Home	D	2-2	740848
2026-02-07	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Away	W	3-1	740840
2026-02-03	Arsenal	Away	L	0-1	401842435
2026-01-31	West Ham United	Home	W	3-2	740835
2026-01-28	Napoli	Away	W	3-2	757792
2026-01-25	Crystal Palace	Away	W	3-1	740820
2026-01-21	Pafos	Home	W	1-0	757773
2026-01-17	Brentford	Home	W	2-0	740808
2026-01-14	Arsenal	Home	L	2-3	401842432
2026-01-10	Charlton Athletic	Away	W	5-1	762514
2026-01-07	Fulham	Away	L	1-2	740802

Last 25 Games Played - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-30	Aston Villa	Home	W	1-0	401862908
2026-04-24	Sunderland	Away	W	5-0	740933
2026-04-19	Burnley	Home	W	4-1	740917
2026-04-16	FC Porto	Home	W	1-0	401862905
2026-04-12	Aston Villa	Home	D	1-1	740914
2026-04-09	FC Porto	Away	D	1-1	401862901
2026-03-22	Tottenham Hotspur	Away	W	3-0	740904
2026-03-19	FC Midtjylland	Away	W	2-1	401862875
2026-03-15	Fulham	Home	D	0-0	740893
2026-03-12	FC Midtjylland	Home	L	0-1	401862770
2026-03-04	Manchester City	Away	D	2-2	740882
2026-03-01	Brighton & Hove Albion	Away	L	1-2	740866
2026-02-26	Fenerbahce	Home	L	1-2	401858780
2026-02-22	Liverpool	Home	L	0-1	740863
2026-02-19	Fenerbahce	Away	W	3-0	401858776
2026-02-11	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	D	0-0	740850
2026-02-06	Leeds United	Away	L	1-3	740841
2026-02-01	Crystal Palace	Home	D	1-1	740832
2026-01-29	Ferencvaros	Home	W	4-0	757930
2026-01-25	Brentford	Away	W	2-0	740818
2026-01-22	Braga	Away	L	0-1	757921
2026-01-17	Arsenal	Home	D	0-0	740812
2026-01-09	Wrexham	Away	D	3-3	762493
2026-01-06	West Ham United	Away	W	2-1	740801
2026-01-03	Aston Villa	Away	L	1-3	740789

Last 15 Home Games - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-26	Leeds United	Home	W	1-0	401867653
2026-04-18	Manchester United	Home	L	0-1	740922
2026-04-12	Manchester City	Home	L	0-3	740909
2026-04-04	Port Vale	Home	W	7-0	401864076
2026-03-17	Paris Saint-Germain	Home	L	0-3	401862648
2026-03-14	Newcastle United	Home	L	0-1	740889
2026-02-21	Burnley	Home	D	1-1	740864
2026-02-10	Leeds United	Home	D	2-2	740848
2026-01-31	West Ham United	Home	W	3-2	740835
2026-01-21	Pafos	Home	W	1-0	757773
2026-01-17	Brentford	Home	W	2-0	740808
2026-01-14	Arsenal	Home	L	2-3	401842432
2025-12-30	AFC Bournemouth	Home	D	2-2	740779
2025-12-27	Aston Villa	Home	L	1-2	740766
2025-12-13	Everton	Home	W	2-0	740750

Last 15 Away Games - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-24	Sunderland	Away	W	5-0	740933
2026-04-09	FC Porto	Away	D	1-1	401862901
2026-03-22	Tottenham Hotspur	Away	W	3-0	740904
2026-03-19	FC Midtjylland	Away	W	2-1	401862875
2026-03-04	Manchester City	Away	D	2-2	740882
2026-03-01	Brighton & Hove Albion	Away	L	1-2	740866
2026-02-19	Fenerbahce	Away	W	3-0	401858776
2026-02-06	Leeds United	Away	L	1-3	740841
2026-01-25	Brentford	Away	W	2-0	740818
2026-01-22	Braga	Away	L	0-1	757921
2026-01-09	Wrexham	Away	D	3-3	762493
2026-01-06	West Ham United	Away	W	2-1	740801
2026-01-03	Aston Villa	Away	L	1-3	740789
2025-12-22	Fulham	Away	L	0-1	740758
2025-12-11	FC Utrecht	Away	W	2-1	757888

Pre-Match Lineups

Chelsea (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Nottingham Forest (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Context Signals Used In Model

Metric	Home	Away
Standing Position	9 / 20	16 / 20
Points (PPG)	48.0 (1.41)	39.0 (1.15)
Team Morale	61.2 / 100	72.1 / 100
Players Morale	50.2 / 100	59.1 / 100
Most Formations Played	4-2-3-1 (19), 4-3-3 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)	4-2-3-1 (17), 4-4-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 5-3-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)
Expected Goals (model)	1.75	1.46
Avg Shots On Target (last 15)	3.47	4.67
Avg Possession % (last 15)	51.56%	46.91%
Avg 1st Half Goals (last 15)	0.60	0.80
Avg 2nd Half Goals (last 15)	0.80	0.87
Avg Goals (last 15)	1.40	1.67
Avg Yellow Cards (last 15)	1.80	1.53
Avg Red Cards (last 15)	0.13	0.00
Avg Corners (last 15)	5.87	5.67
Avg Shots On Target (season)	3.22	4.38
Avg Possession % (season)	46.12%	42.14%
Avg 1st Half Goals (season)	0.56	0.62
Avg 2nd Half Goals (season)	0.89	0.88
Avg Yellow Cards (season)	1.61	1.23
Avg Red Cards (season)	0.11	0.08
Avg Corners (season)	5.17	5.12

Odds Snapshot

1X2 Odds Snapshot
Provider	DraftKings \| O/U line: 2.5
1 (Home)	-140
X (Draw)	+295
2 (Away)	+370

Top Head-to-Head Bets (Per Match Combinations)

#	Combination Legs	Combined Probability	Combined Decimal Odds	Volatility
1	1X (Double Chance) + Home Over 1.5 (Goals - Team Goals)	37.8%	2.34	medium
2	Away Over 0.5 (Goals - Team Goals) + 1 (Match Result (1X2))	37.6%	2.37	medium
3	GG (Both Teams To Score) + Home Over 1.5 (Goals - Team Goals)	33.2%	2.68	medium

Head-to-Head Betting Probabilities

Match Result (1X2)
1	49.0%
X	23.3%
2	27.7%

Double Chance
1X	72.3%
12	76.7%
X2	51.0%

Head-to-Head Signal
sample_size	3.00
confidence	65.2%
result_balance	71.2%
margin_avg	1.53
draw_rate	28.8%
goals_avg	2.11
same_venue_share	28.8%
draw_shift	-0.00

Both Teams To Score
GG	63.4%
NG	36.6%

Goals - Over/Under
Over 0.5	96.0%
Over 1.5	83.0%
Over 2.5	62.2%
Over 3.5	40.0%
Under 2.5	37.8%

Goals - Milestones
1+	96.0%
2+	83.0%
3+	62.2%
4+	40.0%

Goals - Exact Totals
0	4.0%
1	12.9%
2	20.8%
3	22.2%
4	17.9%
5+	22.1%

Goals - Team Goals
Home Over 0.5	82.7%
Home Over 1.5	52.3%
Away Over 0.5	76.7%
Away Over 1.5	42.7%

Handicap - Asian
Home -1.0	win: 23.9% \| push: 20.9% \| lose: 55.2%
Home -0.5	win: 44.8% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 55.2%
Home +0.5	win: 67.9% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 32.1%
Home +1.5	win: 85.2% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 14.8%

Handicap - European
Line -1	1: 23.9% \| X: 20.9% \| 2: 55.2%
Line +0	1: 44.8% \| X: 23.1% \| 2: 32.1%
Line +1	1: 67.9% \| X: 17.3% \| 2: 14.8%

Correct Score (Top Outcomes)
1-1	10.3%
2-1	9.0%
1-2	7.5%
1-0	7.1%
2-2	6.6%
2-0	6.2%
0-1	5.9%
3-1	5.3%

Half / Full Time
1/1	27.8%
1/X	5.4%
1/2	2.4%
X/1	13.9%
X/X	12.4%
X/2	10.6%
2/1	3.0%
2/X	5.4%
2/2	19.1%

Cards - Total
Over 2.5	78.6%
Over 3.5	60.1%
Under 4.5	59.3%

Cards - Milestones
2+ yellows	91.8%
3+ cards	78.6%
4+ cards	60.1%

Cards - Team Expected
home_expected	2.10
away_expected	2.10

Corners - Total
Over 8.5	42.8%
Over 9.5	30.1%
Under 10.5	80.4%

Corners - Team Expected
home_expected	4.36
away_expected	3.86

Corners - First/Last
Home	53.0%
Away	47.0%
Last Home	53.0%
Last Away	47.0%

Timing - Goal Time
0-15 min	50.7%
16-30 min	53.7%
31-45 min	53.7%

Timing - Half Goals
Goal in first half	77.2%
Goal in second half	82.3%

Specials
win_and_gg	Home: 25.5% \| Away: 18.8%
win_and_over	Home + Over 2.5: 31.5% \| Away + Over 2.5: 21.9%
draw_no_bet	Home: 63.9% \| Away: 36.1%

Advanced
penalty_awarded	Yes: 25.9% \| No: 74.1%
red_card	Yes: 12.2% \| No: 87.8%
method_of_victory	Regular time: 97.0% \| Extra time: 2.0% \| Penalties: 1.0%

Approximate bookmaker decimal odds use a fixed 6.0% margin.

Approx. Odds - Match Result (1X2)
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1	49.0%	2.04	1.93
2	27.7%	3.61	3.41
X	23.3%	4.29	4.05

Approx. Odds - Double Chance
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
12	76.7%	1.30	1.23
1X	72.3%	1.38	1.30
X2	51.0%	1.96	1.85

Approx. Odds - Both Teams To Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
GG	63.4%	1.58	1.49
NG	36.6%	2.73	2.58

Approx. Odds - Goals - Over/Under
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Over 0.5	96.0%	1.04	1.00
Over 1.5	83.0%	1.20	1.14
Over 2.5	62.2%	1.61	1.52
Over 3.5	40.0%	2.50	2.36
Under 2.5	37.8%	2.65	2.50

Approx. Odds - Goals - Exact Totals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
3	22.2%	4.50	4.24
5+	22.1%	4.52	4.27
2	20.8%	4.81	4.54
4	17.9%	5.60	5.28
1	12.9%	7.72	7.29
0	4.0%	24.79	23.39

Approx. Odds - Goals - Team Goals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Home Over 0.5	82.7%	1.21	1.14
Away Over 0.5	76.7%	1.30	1.23
Home Over 1.5	52.3%	1.91	1.80
Away Over 1.5	42.7%	2.34	2.21

Approx. Odds - Correct Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1-1	10.3%	9.71	9.16
2-1	9.0%	11.06	10.44
1-2	7.5%	13.33	12.58
1-0	7.1%	14.13	13.33
2-2	6.6%	15.20	14.34
2-0	6.2%	16.11	15.20
0-1	5.9%	17.03	16.06
3-1	5.3%	18.92	17.85

Lineups are not published yet for this match in ESPN feeds.

2026-05-04 22:00 EESTEverton vs Manchester CityMon, May 4th at 3:00 PM EDT

Last 25 Games Played - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-25	West Ham United	Away	L	1-2	740930
2026-04-19	Liverpool	Home	L	1-2	740925
2026-04-11	Brentford	Away	D	2-2	740906
2026-03-21	Chelsea	Home	W	3-0	740899
2026-03-14	Arsenal	Away	L	0-2	740886
2026-03-03	Burnley	Home	W	2-0	740879
2026-02-28	Newcastle United	Away	W	3-2	740874
2026-02-23	Manchester United	Home	L	0-1	740856
2026-02-10	AFC Bournemouth	Home	L	1-2	740852
2026-02-07	Fulham	Away	W	2-1	740842
2026-01-31	Brighton & Hove Albion	Away	D	1-1	740831
2026-01-26	Leeds United	Home	D	1-1	740821
2026-01-18	Aston Villa	Away	W	1-0	740806
2026-01-10	Sunderland	Home	D	1-1	762489
2026-01-07	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	D	1-1	740800
2026-01-04	Brentford	Home	L	2-4	740794
2025-12-30	Nottingham Forest	Away	W	2-0	740783
2025-12-27	Burnley	Away	D	0-0	740773
2025-12-20	Arsenal	Home	L	0-1	740757
2025-12-13	Chelsea	Away	L	0-2	740750
2025-12-06	Nottingham Forest	Home	W	3-0	740739
2025-12-02	AFC Bournemouth	Away	W	1-0	740733
2025-11-29	Newcastle United	Home	L	1-4	740721
2025-11-24	Manchester United	Away	W	1-0	740711
2025-11-08	Fulham	Home	W	2-0	740701

Last 25 Games Played - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-25	Southampton	Home	W	2-1	401867654
2026-04-22	Burnley	Away	W	1-0	740929
2026-04-19	Arsenal	Home	W	2-1	740916
2026-04-12	Chelsea	Away	W	3-0	740909
2026-04-04	Liverpool	Home	W	4-0	401864077
2026-03-22	Arsenal	Away	W	2-0	401859837
2026-03-17	Real Madrid	Home	L	1-2	401862647
2026-03-14	West Ham United	Away	D	1-1	740895
2026-03-11	Real Madrid	Away	L	0-3	401862645
2026-03-07	Newcastle United	Away	W	3-1	401861586
2026-03-04	Nottingham Forest	Home	D	2-2	740882
2026-02-28	Leeds United	Away	W	1-0	740869
2026-02-21	Newcastle United	Home	W	2-1	740857
2026-02-14	Salford City	Home	W	2-0	401850908
2026-02-11	Fulham	Home	W	3-0	740849
2026-02-08	Liverpool	Away	W	2-1	740845
2026-02-04	Newcastle United	Home	W	3-1	401842434
2026-02-01	Tottenham Hotspur	Away	D	2-2	740828
2026-01-28	Galatasaray	Home	W	2-0	757790
2026-01-24	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	W	2-0	740823
2026-01-20	Bodo/Glimt	Away	L	1-3	757762
2026-01-17	Manchester United	Away	L	0-2	740811
2026-01-13	Newcastle United	Away	W	2-0	401842433
2026-01-10	Exeter City	Home	W	10-1	762497
2026-01-07	Brighton & Hove Albion	Home	D	1-1	740803

Last 15 Home Games - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-19	Liverpool	Home	L	1-2	740925
2026-03-21	Chelsea	Home	W	3-0	740899
2026-03-03	Burnley	Home	W	2-0	740879
2026-02-23	Manchester United	Home	L	0-1	740856
2026-02-10	AFC Bournemouth	Home	L	1-2	740852
2026-01-26	Leeds United	Home	D	1-1	740821
2026-01-10	Sunderland	Home	D	1-1	762489
2026-01-07	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	D	1-1	740800
2026-01-04	Brentford	Home	L	2-4	740794
2025-12-20	Arsenal	Home	L	0-1	740757
2025-12-06	Nottingham Forest	Home	W	3-0	740739
2025-11-29	Newcastle United	Home	L	1-4	740721
2025-11-08	Fulham	Home	W	2-0	740701
2025-10-26	Tottenham Hotspur	Home	L	0-3	740681
2025-10-05	Crystal Palace	Home	W	2-1	740661

Last 15 Away Games - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-22	Burnley	Away	W	1-0	740929
2026-04-12	Chelsea	Away	W	3-0	740909
2026-03-22	Arsenal	Away	W	2-0	401859837
2026-03-14	West Ham United	Away	D	1-1	740895
2026-03-11	Real Madrid	Away	L	0-3	401862645
2026-03-07	Newcastle United	Away	W	3-1	401861586
2026-02-28	Leeds United	Away	W	1-0	740869
2026-02-08	Liverpool	Away	W	2-1	740845
2026-02-01	Tottenham Hotspur	Away	D	2-2	740828
2026-01-20	Bodo/Glimt	Away	L	1-3	757762
2026-01-17	Manchester United	Away	L	0-2	740811
2026-01-13	Newcastle United	Away	W	2-0	401842433
2026-01-01	Sunderland	Away	D	0-0	740784
2025-12-27	Nottingham Forest	Away	W	2-1	740770
2025-12-14	Crystal Palace	Away	W	3-0	740747

Pre-Match Lineups

Everton (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Manchester City (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Context Signals Used In Model

Metric	Home	Away
Standing Position	11 / 20	2 / 20
Points (PPG)	47.0 (1.38)	70.0 (2.12)
Team Morale	60.4 / 100	100.0 / 100
Players Morale	49.5 / 100	82.0 / 100
Most Formations Played	4-2-3-1 (24), 4-3-3 (1)	4-2-3-1 (9), 4-1-3-2 (8), 4-1-4-1 (5), 4-3-2-1 (1), 4-2-2-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)
Expected Goals (model)	1.01	2.22
Avg Shots On Target (last 15)	3.87	5.33
Avg Possession % (last 15)	42.41%	57.31%
Avg 1st Half Goals (last 15)	0.47	0.80
Avg 2nd Half Goals (last 15)	0.60	1.20
Avg Goals (last 15)	1.07	2.00
Avg Yellow Cards (last 15)	1.20	1.67
Avg Red Cards (last 15)	0.13	0.00
Avg Corners (last 15)	4.47	5.87
Avg Shots On Target (season)	4.11	4.27
Avg Possession % (season)	40.73%	51.58%
Avg 1st Half Goals (season)	0.33	0.64
Avg 2nd Half Goals (season)	0.67	1.09
Avg Yellow Cards (season)	0.78	1.55
Avg Red Cards (season)	0.11	0.00
Avg Corners (season)	4.22	5.18

Odds Snapshot

1X2 Odds Snapshot
Provider	DraftKings \| O/U line: 2.5
1 (Home)	+550
X (Draw)	+360
2 (Away)	-205

Top Head-to-Head Bets (Per Match Combinations)

#	Combination Legs	Combined Probability	Combined Decimal Odds	Volatility
1	2 (Match Result (1X2)) + GG (Both Teams To Score)	36.8%	2.41	medium
2	Away Over 1.5 (Goals - Team Goals) + GG (Both Teams To Score)	36.8%	2.41	medium
3	Home Over 0.5 (Goals - Team Goals) + GG (Both Teams To Score)	36.1%	2.46	medium

Hedged Pair Suggestions

#	Primary Combo	Hedge Combo	Stake Split (Primary/Hedge)	Worst-Case Return	Coverage Probability
1	2 + GG	1X + NG	49.9% / 50.1%	-1.00	52.0%

Head-to-Head Betting Probabilities

Match Result (1X2)
1	15.7%
X	19.4%
2	64.9%

Double Chance
1X	35.1%
12	80.6%
X2	84.3%

Head-to-Head Signal
sample_size	3.00
confidence	65.2%
result_balance	-0.78
margin_avg	-1.56
draw_rate	21.9%
goals_avg	2.00
same_venue_share	38.0%
draw_shift	-0.01

Both Teams To Score
GG	56.7%
NG	43.3%

Goals - Over/Under
Over 0.5	96.0%
Over 1.5	83.2%
Over 2.5	62.5%
Over 3.5	40.3%
Under 2.5	37.5%

Goals - Milestones
1+	96.0%
2+	83.2%
3+	62.5%
4+	40.3%

Goals - Exact Totals
0	4.0%
1	12.8%
2	20.7%
3	22.2%
4	17.9%
5+	22.4%

Goals - Team Goals
Home Over 0.5	63.7%
Home Over 1.5	26.9%
Away Over 0.5	89.1%
Away Over 1.5	64.9%

Handicap - Asian
Home -1.0	win: 5.5% \| push: 10.6% \| lose: 83.9%
Home -0.5	win: 16.1% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 83.9%
Home +0.5	win: 35.4% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 64.6%
Home +1.5	win: 58.5% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 41.5%

Handicap - European
Line -1	1: 5.5% \| X: 10.6% \| 2: 83.9%
Line +0	1: 16.1% \| X: 19.3% \| 2: 64.6%
Line +1	1: 35.4% \| X: 23.1% \| 2: 41.5%

Correct Score (Top Outcomes)
1-2	9.8%
0-2	9.7%
1-1	8.9%
0-1	8.8%
1-3	7.3%
0-3	7.2%
2-2	5.0%
2-1	4.5%

Half / Full Time
1/1	9.0%
1/X	4.3%
1/2	3.4%
X/1	5.9%
X/X	10.8%
X/2	18.1%
2/1	1.2%
2/X	4.3%
2/2	43.1%

Cards - Total
Over 2.5	78.7%
Over 3.5	60.2%
Under 4.5	59.2%

Cards - Milestones
2+ yellows	91.8%
3+ cards	78.7%
4+ cards	60.2%

Cards - Team Expected
home_expected	2.10
away_expected	2.10

Corners - Total
Over 8.5	43.0%
Over 9.5	30.2%
Under 10.5	80.2%

Corners - Team Expected
home_expected	3.13
away_expected	5.11

Corners - First/Last
Home	38.0%
Away	62.0%
Last Home	38.0%
Last Away	62.0%

Timing - Goal Time
0-15 min	50.8%
16-30 min	53.9%
31-45 min	53.9%

Timing - Half Goals
Goal in first half	77.3%
Goal in second half	82.5%

Specials
win_and_gg	Home: 9.2% \| Away: 32.2%
win_and_over	Home + Over 2.5: 10.1% \| Away + Over 2.5: 46.1%
draw_no_bet	Home: 19.5% \| Away: 80.5%

Advanced
penalty_awarded	Yes: 26.0% \| No: 74.0%
red_card	Yes: 12.2% \| No: 87.8%
method_of_victory	Regular time: 97.0% \| Extra time: 2.0% \| Penalties: 1.0%

Approximate bookmaker decimal odds use a fixed 6.0% margin.

Approx. Odds - Match Result (1X2)
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
2	64.9%	1.54	1.45
X	19.4%	5.14	4.85
1	15.7%	6.38	6.02

Approx. Odds - Double Chance
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
X2	84.3%	1.19	1.12
12	80.6%	1.24	1.17
1X	35.1%	2.85	2.69

Approx. Odds - Both Teams To Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
GG	56.7%	1.76	1.66
NG	43.3%	2.31	2.18

Approx. Odds - Goals - Over/Under
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Over 0.5	96.0%	1.04	1.00
Over 1.5	83.2%	1.20	1.13
Over 2.5	62.5%	1.60	1.51
Over 3.5	40.3%	2.48	2.34
Under 2.5	37.5%	2.67	2.52

Approx. Odds - Goals - Exact Totals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
5+	22.4%	4.47	4.21
3	22.2%	4.50	4.25
2	20.7%	4.84	4.57
4	17.9%	5.58	5.26
1	12.8%	7.82	7.37
0	4.0%	25.23	23.80

Approx. Odds - Goals - Team Goals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Away Over 0.5	89.1%	1.12	1.06
Away Over 1.5	64.9%	1.54	1.45
Home Over 0.5	63.7%	1.57	1.48
Home Over 1.5	26.9%	3.72	3.51

Approx. Odds - Correct Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1-2	9.8%	10.15	9.58
0-2	9.7%	10.28	9.70
1-1	8.9%	11.25	10.61
0-1	8.8%	11.39	10.74
1-3	7.3%	13.75	12.97
0-3	7.2%	13.92	13.14
2-2	5.0%	20.05	18.92
2-1	4.5%	22.21	20.95

Lineups are not published yet for this match in ESPN feeds.

LALIGA1 matches

League Standings

Pos	Team	GP	Pts	W	D	L	GD	GF:GA
1	Barcelona	34	88	29	1	4	58	89:31
2	Real Madrid	34	77	24	5	5	39	70:31
3	Villarreal	34	68	21	5	8	25	64:39
4	Atlético Madrid	34	63	19	6	9	21	58:37
5	Real Betis	34	53	13	14	7	11	52:41
6	Celta Vigo	34	47	12	11	11	4	48:44
7	Getafe	34	44	13	5	16	-8	28:36
8	Athletic Club	34	44	13	5	16	-10	40:50
9	Real Sociedad	33	43	11	10	12	0	52:52
10	Osasuna	34	42	11	9	14	-2	40:42
11	Rayo Vallecano	34	42	10	12	12	-6	35:41
12	Valencia	34	39	10	9	15	-13	37:50
13	Espanyol	34	39	10	9	15	-14	37:51
14	Elche	34	38	9	11	14	-8	45:53
15	Mallorca	34	38	10	8	16	-9	42:51
16	Girona	34	38	9	11	14	-15	36:51
17	Alavés	34	36	9	9	16	-13	40:53
18	Sevilla	33	34	9	7	17	-15	40:55
19	Levante	34	33	8	9	17	-17	38:55
20	Real Oviedo	34	28	6	10	18	-28	26:54

2026-05-04 22:00 EESTSevilla vs Real SociedadMon, May 4th at 3:00 PM EDT

Last 25 Games Played - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-26	Osasuna	Away	L	1-2	748459
2026-04-23	Levante	Away	L	0-2	748473
2026-04-11	Atlético Madrid	Home	W	2-1	748450
2026-04-05	Real Oviedo	Away	L	0-1	748441
2026-03-21	Valencia	Home	L	0-2	748428
2026-03-15	Barcelona	Away	L	2-5	748415
2026-03-08	Rayo Vallecano	Home	D	1-1	748405
2026-03-01	Real Betis	Away	D	2-2	748396
2026-02-22	Getafe	Away	W	1-0	748384
2026-02-14	Alavés	Home	D	1-1	748374
2026-02-08	Girona	Home	D	1-1	748365
2026-02-02	Mallorca	Away	L	1-4	748363
2026-01-24	Athletic Club	Home	W	2-1	748351
2026-01-19	Elche	Away	D	2-2	748336
2026-01-12	Celta Vigo	Home	L	0-1	748325
2026-01-04	Levante	Home	L	0-3	748323
2025-12-20	Real Madrid	Away	L	0-2	748307
2025-12-17	Alavés	Away	L	0-1	762544
2025-12-14	Real Oviedo	Home	W	4-0	748295
2025-12-07	Valencia	Away	D	1-1	748292
2025-12-04	CD Extremadura	Away	W	2-1	761029
2025-11-30	Real Betis	Home	L	0-2	748283
2025-11-24	Espanyol	Away	L	1-2	748265
2025-11-08	Osasuna	Home	W	1-0	748255
2025-11-01	Atlético Madrid	Away	L	0-3	748245

Last 25 Games Played - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-26	Rayo Vallecano	Away	D	3-3	748458
2026-04-22	Getafe	Home	L	0-1	748472
2026-04-18	Atlético Madrid	Away	D	2-2	401859852
2026-04-11	Alavés	Home	D	3-3	748452
2026-04-04	Levante	Home	W	2-0	748442
2026-03-20	Villarreal	Away	L	1-3	748429
2026-03-15	Osasuna	Home	W	3-1	748420
2026-03-07	Atlético Madrid	Away	L	2-3	748410
2026-03-04	Athletic Club	Home	W	1-0	401859851
2026-02-28	Mallorca	Away	W	1-0	748403
2026-02-21	Real Oviedo	Home	D	3-3	748385
2026-02-14	Real Madrid	Away	L	1-4	748383
2026-02-11	Athletic Club	Away	W	1-0	401859848
2026-02-07	Elche	Home	W	3-1	748366
2026-02-04	Alavés	Away	W	3-2	401856362
2026-02-01	Athletic Club	Away	D	1-1	748358
2026-01-25	Celta Vigo	Home	W	3-1	748350
2026-01-18	Barcelona	Home	W	2-1	748343
2026-01-13	Osasuna	Home	D	2-2	401846958
2026-01-09	Getafe	Away	W	2-1	748330
2026-01-04	Atlético Madrid	Home	D	1-1	748314
2025-12-20	Levante	Away	D	1-1	748310
2025-12-16	Eldense	Away	W	2-1	762537
2025-12-12	Girona	Home	L	1-2	748294
2025-12-06	Alavés	Away	L	0-1	748287

Last 15 Home Games - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-11	Atlético Madrid	Home	W	2-1	748450
2026-03-21	Valencia	Home	L	0-2	748428
2026-03-08	Rayo Vallecano	Home	D	1-1	748405
2026-02-14	Alavés	Home	D	1-1	748374
2026-02-08	Girona	Home	D	1-1	748365
2026-01-24	Athletic Club	Home	W	2-1	748351
2026-01-12	Celta Vigo	Home	L	0-1	748325
2026-01-04	Levante	Home	L	0-3	748323
2025-12-14	Real Oviedo	Home	W	4-0	748295
2025-11-30	Real Betis	Home	L	0-2	748283
2025-11-08	Osasuna	Home	W	1-0	748255
2025-10-18	Mallorca	Home	L	1-3	748227
2025-10-05	Barcelona	Home	W	4-1	748215
2025-09-23	Villarreal	Home	L	1-2	748196
2025-09-12	Elche	Home	D	2-2	748183

Last 15 Away Games - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-26	Rayo Vallecano	Away	D	3-3	748458
2026-04-18	Atlético Madrid	Away	D	2-2	401859852
2026-03-20	Villarreal	Away	L	1-3	748429
2026-03-07	Atlético Madrid	Away	L	2-3	748410
2026-02-28	Mallorca	Away	W	1-0	748403
2026-02-14	Real Madrid	Away	L	1-4	748383
2026-02-11	Athletic Club	Away	W	1-0	401859848
2026-02-04	Alavés	Away	W	3-2	401856362
2026-02-01	Athletic Club	Away	D	1-1	748358
2026-01-09	Getafe	Away	W	2-1	748330
2025-12-20	Levante	Away	D	1-1	748310
2025-12-16	Eldense	Away	W	2-1	762537
2025-12-06	Alavés	Away	L	0-1	748287
2025-12-03	Reddis	Away	W	2-0	761019
2025-11-22	Osasuna	Away	W	3-1	748267

Pre-Match Lineups

Sevilla (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Real Sociedad (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Context Signals Used In Model

Metric	Home	Away
Standing Position	18 / 20	9 / 20
Points (PPG)	34.0 (1.03)	43.0 (1.30)
Team Morale	12.9 / 100	59.8 / 100
Players Morale	10.6 / 100	49.0 / 100
Most Formations Played	4-2-3-1 (6), 5-3-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-4-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)	4-2-3-1 (10), 4-4-2 (9), 4-1-4-1 (5), 4-4-1-1 (1)
Expected Goals (model)	1.17	1.93
Avg Shots On Target (last 15)	3.07	4.93
Avg Possession % (last 15)	47.19%	53.59%
Avg 1st Half Goals (last 15)	0.47	0.67
Avg 2nd Half Goals (last 15)	0.53	0.67
Avg Goals (last 15)	1.00	1.33
Avg Yellow Cards (last 15)	2.20	2.53
Avg Red Cards (last 15)	0.13	0.00
Avg Corners (last 15)	4.60	6.33
Avg Shots On Target (season)	2.62	4.50
Avg Possession % (season)	46.53%	47.59%
Avg 1st Half Goals (season)	0.38	0.70
Avg 2nd Half Goals (season)	0.46	0.70
Avg Yellow Cards (season)	2.15	2.20
Avg Red Cards (season)	0.08	0.00
Avg Corners (season)	4.54	5.00

Odds Snapshot

1X2 Odds Snapshot
Provider	DraftKings \| O/U line: 2.5
1 (Home)	+145
X (Draw)	+235
2 (Away)	+195

Top Head-to-Head Bets (Per Match Combinations)

#	Combination Legs	Combined Probability	Combined Decimal Odds	Volatility
1	Over 1.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + 2 (Match Result (1X2))	38.4%	2.33	medium
2	Home Over 0.5 (Goals - Team Goals) + 1X (Double Chance)	36.6%	2.44	medium
3	Over 2.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + GG (Both Teams To Score)	35.4%	2.51	medium

Hedged Pair Suggestions

#	Primary Combo	Hedge Combo	Stake Split (Primary/Hedge)	Worst-Case Return	Coverage Probability
1	Over 2.5 + GG	Under 2.5 + NG	49.9% / 50.1%	-1.00	51.8%

Head-to-Head Betting Probabilities

Match Result (1X2)
1	29.2%
X	23.8%
2	47.0%

Double Chance
1X	53.0%
12	76.2%
X2	70.8%

Head-to-Head Signal
sample_size	3.00
confidence	65.2%
result_balance	-0.39
margin_avg	-0.68
draw_rate	0.0%
goals_avg	2.11
same_venue_share	28.8%
draw_shift	-0.01

Both Teams To Score
GG	59.0%
NG	41.0%

Goals - Over/Under
Over 0.5	95.5%
Over 1.5	81.6%
Over 2.5	60.0%
Over 3.5	37.6%
Under 2.5	40.0%

Goals - Milestones
1+	95.5%
2+	81.6%
3+	60.0%
4+	37.6%

Goals - Exact Totals
0	4.5%
1	13.9%
2	21.6%
3	22.4%
4	17.4%
5+	20.2%

Goals - Team Goals
Home Over 0.5	69.0%
Home Over 1.5	32.7%
Away Over 0.5	85.5%
Away Over 1.5	57.6%

Handicap - Asian
Home -1.0	win: 8.9% \| push: 13.9% \| lose: 77.2%
Home -0.5	win: 22.8% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 77.2%
Home +0.5	win: 44.9% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 55.1%
Home +1.5	win: 67.8% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 32.1%

Handicap - European
Line -1	1: 8.9% \| X: 13.9% \| 2: 77.2%
Line +0	1: 22.8% \| X: 22.1% \| 2: 55.1%
Line +1	1: 44.9% \| X: 23.0% \| 2: 32.1%

Correct Score (Top Outcomes)
1-1	10.2%
1-2	9.8%
0-1	8.7%
0-2	8.4%
1-3	6.3%
2-1	5.9%
2-2	5.7%
0-3	5.4%

Half / Full Time
1/1	13.1%
1/X	4.9%
1/2	3.2%
X/1	8.1%
X/X	12.3%
X/2	16.6%
2/1	1.7%
2/X	4.9%
2/2	35.4%

Cards - Total
Over 2.5	78.1%
Over 3.5	59.5%
Under 4.5	60.0%

Cards - Milestones
2+ yellows	91.6%
3+ cards	78.1%
4+ cards	59.5%

Cards - Team Expected
home_expected	2.08
away_expected	2.08

Corners - Total
Over 8.5	41.5%
Over 9.5	28.9%
Under 10.5	81.3%

Corners - Team Expected
home_expected	3.44
away_expected	4.68

Corners - First/Last
Home	42.4%
Away	57.6%
Last Home	42.4%
Last Away	57.6%

Timing - Goal Time
0-15 min	49.5%
16-30 min	52.5%
31-45 min	52.5%

Timing - Half Goals
Goal in first half	76.0%
Goal in second half	81.3%

Specials
win_and_gg	Home: 12.8% \| Away: 28.6%
win_and_over	Home + Over 2.5: 14.5% \| Away + Over 2.5: 38.1%
draw_no_bet	Home: 38.3% \| Away: 61.7%

Advanced
penalty_awarded	Yes: 25.0% \| No: 75.0%
red_card	Yes: 12.2% \| No: 87.8%
method_of_victory	Regular time: 97.0% \| Extra time: 2.0% \| Penalties: 1.0%

Approximate bookmaker decimal odds use a fixed 6.0% margin.

Approx. Odds - Match Result (1X2)
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
2	47.0%	2.13	2.01
1	29.2%	3.42	3.23
X	23.8%	4.20	3.97

Approx. Odds - Double Chance
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
12	76.2%	1.31	1.24
X2	70.8%	1.41	1.33
1X	53.0%	1.89	1.78

Approx. Odds - Both Teams To Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
GG	59.0%	1.69	1.60
NG	41.0%	2.44	2.30

Approx. Odds - Goals - Over/Under
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Over 0.5	95.5%	1.05	1.00
Over 1.5	81.6%	1.23	1.16
Over 2.5	60.0%	1.67	1.57
Under 2.5	40.0%	2.50	2.36
Over 3.5	37.6%	2.66	2.51

Approx. Odds - Goals - Exact Totals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
3	22.4%	4.47	4.22
2	21.6%	4.63	4.37
5+	20.2%	4.94	4.66
4	17.4%	5.76	5.43
1	13.9%	7.18	6.78
0	4.5%	22.30	21.04

Approx. Odds - Goals - Team Goals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Away Over 0.5	85.5%	1.17	1.10
Home Over 0.5	69.0%	1.45	1.37
Away Over 1.5	57.6%	1.74	1.64
Home Over 1.5	32.7%	3.06	2.89

Approx. Odds - Correct Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1-1	10.2%	9.85	9.29
1-2	9.8%	10.19	9.61
0-1	8.7%	11.53	10.88
0-2	8.4%	11.93	11.25
1-3	6.3%	15.80	14.91
2-1	5.9%	16.82	15.87
2-2	5.7%	17.40	16.42
0-3	5.4%	18.50	17.46

Lineups are not published yet for this match in ESPN feeds.

Italian Serie A2 matches

League Standings

Pos	Team	GP	Pts	W	D	L	GD	GF:GA
1	Internazionale	35	82	26	4	5	51	82:31
2	Napoli	35	70	21	7	7	19	52:33
3	AC Milan	35	67	19	10	6	19	48:29
4	Juventus	35	65	18	11	6	28	58:30
5	Como	35	62	17	11	7	31	59:28
6	AS Roma	34	61	19	4	11	19	48:29
7	Atalanta	35	55	14	13	8	15	47:32
8	Bologna	35	49	14	7	14	1	42:41
9	Sassuolo	35	49	14	7	14	-1	43:44
10	Lazio	34	48	12	12	10	4	37:33
11	Udinese	35	47	13	8	14	-3	43:46
12	Parma	35	42	10	12	13	-17	25:42
13	Torino	35	41	11	8	16	-19	39:58
14	Genoa	35	40	10	10	15	-8	40:48
15	Fiorentina	34	37	8	13	13	-7	38:45
16	Cagliari	35	37	9	10	16	-13	36:49
17	Lecce	35	32	8	8	19	-23	24:47
18	Cremonese	34	28	6	10	18	-25	26:51
19	Hellas Verona	35	20	3	11	21	-33	24:57
20	Pisa	35	18	2	12	21	-38	25:63

2026-05-04 19:30 EESTCremonese vs LazioMon, May 4th at 12:30 PM EDT

Last 25 Games Played - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-24	Napoli	Away	L	0-4	737116
2026-04-19	Torino	Home	D	0-0	737104
2026-04-11	Cagliari	Away	L	0-1	737100
2026-04-05	Bologna	Home	L	1-2	737092
2026-03-21	Parma	Away	W	2-0	737075
2026-03-16	Fiorentina	Home	L	1-4	737065
2026-03-08	Lecce	Away	L	1-2	737055
2026-03-01	AC Milan	Home	L	0-2	737051
2026-02-22	AS Roma	Away	L	0-3	737035
2026-02-15	Genoa	Home	D	0-0	737033
2026-02-09	Atalanta	Away	L	1-2	737022
2026-02-01	Internazionale	Home	L	0-2	737009
2026-01-25	Sassuolo	Away	L	0-1	736998
2026-01-19	Hellas Verona	Home	D	0-0	736985
2026-01-12	Juventus	Away	L	0-5	736980
2026-01-08	Cagliari	Home	D	2-2	736965
2026-01-04	Fiorentina	Away	L	0-1	736957
2025-12-28	Napoli	Home	L	0-2	736951
2025-12-20	Lazio	Away	D	0-0	736938
2025-12-13	Torino	Away	L	0-1	736924
2025-12-07	Lecce	Home	W	2-0	736921
2025-12-01	Bologna	Away	W	3-1	736909
2025-11-23	AS Roma	Home	L	1-3	736897
2025-11-07	Pisa	Away	L	0-1	736886
2025-11-01	Juventus	Home	L	1-2	736880

Last 25 Games Played - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-27	Udinese	Home	D	3-3	737123
2026-04-22	Atalanta	Away	D	1-1	762436
2026-04-18	Napoli	Away	W	2-0	737110
2026-04-13	Fiorentina	Away	L	0-1	737098
2026-04-04	Parma	Home	D	1-1	737093
2026-03-22	Bologna	Away	W	2-0	737082
2026-03-15	AC Milan	Home	W	1-0	737071
2026-03-09	Sassuolo	Home	W	2-1	737056
2026-03-04	Atalanta	Home	D	2-2	762434
2026-03-01	Torino	Away	L	0-2	737044
2026-02-21	Cagliari	Away	D	0-0	737041
2026-02-14	Atalanta	Home	L	0-2	737031
2026-02-11	Bologna	Away	D	1-1	762428
2026-02-08	Juventus	Away	D	2-2	737017
2026-01-30	Genoa	Home	W	3-2	737013
2026-01-24	Lecce	Away	D	0-0	736999
2026-01-19	Como	Home	L	0-3	736984
2026-01-11	Hellas Verona	Away	W	1-0	736983
2026-01-07	Fiorentina	Home	D	2-2	736966
2026-01-04	Napoli	Home	L	0-2	736962
2025-12-27	Udinese	Away	D	1-1	736948
2025-12-20	Cremonese	Home	D	0-0	736938
2025-12-13	Parma	Away	W	1-0	736926
2025-12-07	Bologna	Home	D	1-1	736923
2025-12-04	AC Milan	Home	W	1-0	759117

Last 15 Home Games - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-19	Torino	Home	D	0-0	737104
2026-04-05	Bologna	Home	L	1-2	737092
2026-03-16	Fiorentina	Home	L	1-4	737065
2026-03-01	AC Milan	Home	L	0-2	737051
2026-02-15	Genoa	Home	D	0-0	737033
2026-02-01	Internazionale	Home	L	0-2	737009
2026-01-19	Hellas Verona	Home	D	0-0	736985
2026-01-08	Cagliari	Home	D	2-2	736965
2025-12-28	Napoli	Home	L	0-2	736951
2025-12-07	Lecce	Home	W	2-0	736921
2025-11-23	AS Roma	Home	L	1-3	736897
2025-11-01	Juventus	Home	L	1-2	736880
2025-10-25	Atalanta	Home	D	1-1	736854
2025-10-20	Udinese	Home	D	1-1	736853
2025-09-21	Parma	Home	D	0-0	736816

Last 15 Away Games - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-22	Atalanta	Away	D	1-1	762436
2026-04-18	Napoli	Away	W	2-0	737110
2026-04-13	Fiorentina	Away	L	0-1	737098
2026-03-22	Bologna	Away	W	2-0	737082
2026-03-01	Torino	Away	L	0-2	737044
2026-02-21	Cagliari	Away	D	0-0	737041
2026-02-11	Bologna	Away	D	1-1	762428
2026-02-08	Juventus	Away	D	2-2	737017
2026-01-24	Lecce	Away	D	0-0	736999
2026-01-11	Hellas Verona	Away	W	1-0	736983
2025-12-27	Udinese	Away	D	1-1	736948
2025-12-13	Parma	Away	W	1-0	736926
2025-11-29	AC Milan	Away	L	0-1	736904
2025-11-09	Internazionale	Away	L	0-2	736890
2025-10-30	Pisa	Away	D	0-0	736865

Pre-Match Lineups

Cremonese (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Lazio (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Context Signals Used In Model

Metric	Home	Away
Standing Position	18 / 20	10 / 20
Points (PPG)	28.0 (0.82)	48.0 (1.41)
Team Morale	0.0 / 100	73.3 / 100
Players Morale	0.0 / 100	60.1 / 100
Most Formations Played	3-5-2 (18), 4-4-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1)	4-3-3 (25)
Expected Goals (model)	0.89	1.53
Avg Shots On Target (last 15)	3.13	3.27
Avg Possession % (last 15)	45.97%	46.64%
Avg 1st Half Goals (last 15)	0.27	0.27
Avg 2nd Half Goals (last 15)	0.53	0.93
Avg Goals (last 15)	0.80	1.20
Avg Yellow Cards (last 15)	1.93	1.67
Avg Red Cards (last 15)	0.20	0.00
Avg Corners (last 15)	3.33	2.80
Avg Shots On Target (season)	2.83	2.88
Avg Possession % (season)	43.02%	43.19%
Avg 1st Half Goals (season)	0.17	0.24
Avg 2nd Half Goals (season)	0.42	0.82
Avg Yellow Cards (season)	1.75	1.59
Avg Red Cards (season)	0.17	0.12
Avg Corners (season)	3.00	2.59

Odds Snapshot

1X2 Odds Snapshot
Provider	DraftKings \| O/U line: 2.5
1 (Home)	+190
X (Draw)	+205
2 (Away)	+140

Top Head-to-Head Bets (Per Match Combinations)

#	Combination Legs	Combined Probability	Combined Decimal Odds	Volatility
1	12 (Double Chance) + NG (Both Teams To Score)	38.1%	2.33	medium
2	Over 1.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + 1X (Double Chance)	37.8%	2.35	medium
3	Over 1.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + NG (Both Teams To Score)	37.4%	2.36	medium

Hedged Pair Suggestions

#	Primary Combo	Hedge Combo	Stake Split (Primary/Hedge)	Worst-Case Return	Coverage Probability
1	12 + NG	X + GG	50.0% / 50.0%	-1.00	51.6%

Head-to-Head Betting Probabilities

Match Result (1X2)
1	25.2%
X	29.1%
2	45.8%

Double Chance
1X	54.2%
12	70.9%
X2	74.8%

Head-to-Head Signal
sample_size	100.0%
confidence	38.5%
result_balance	0.0%
margin_avg	0.0%
draw_rate	100.0%
goals_avg	0.0%
same_venue_share	0.0%
draw_shift	2.7%

Both Teams To Score
GG	46.2%
NG	53.8%

Goals - Over/Under
Over 0.5	91.1%
Over 1.5	69.6%
Over 2.5	43.6%
Over 3.5	22.6%
Under 2.5	56.4%

Goals - Milestones
1+	91.1%
2+	69.6%
3+	43.6%
4+	22.6%

Goals - Exact Totals
0	8.9%
1	21.5%
2	26.0%
3	21.0%
4	12.7%
5+	9.9%

Goals - Team Goals
Home Over 0.5	59.0%
Home Over 1.5	22.5%
Away Over 0.5	78.3%
Away Over 1.5	45.2%

Handicap - Asian
Home -1.0	win: 7.3% \| push: 14.7% \| lose: 78.0%
Home -0.5	win: 22.0% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 78.0%
Home +0.5	win: 47.8% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 52.2%
Home +1.5	win: 73.0% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 27.0%

Handicap - European
Line -1	1: 7.3% \| X: 14.7% \| 2: 78.0%
Line +0	1: 22.0% \| X: 25.8% \| 2: 52.2%
Line +1	1: 47.8% \| X: 25.2% \| 2: 27.0%

Correct Score (Top Outcomes)
0-1	13.6%
1-1	12.1%
0-2	10.4%
1-2	9.3%
0-0	8.9%
1-0	7.9%
2-1	5.4%
0-3	5.3%

Half / Full Time
1/1	12.2%
1/X	4.5%
1/2	2.3%
X/1	8.6%
X/X	16.7%
X/2	17.7%
2/1	1.2%
2/X	4.5%
2/2	32.3%

Cards - Total
Over 2.5	74.9%
Over 3.5	55.0%
Under 4.5	64.5%

Cards - Milestones
2+ yellows	90.1%
3+ cards	74.9%
4+ cards	55.0%

Cards - Team Expected
home_expected	1.96
away_expected	1.96

Corners - Total
Over 8.5	33.5%
Over 9.5	22.0%
Under 10.5	86.6%

Corners - Team Expected
home_expected	3.28
away_expected	4.23

Corners - First/Last
Home	43.6%
Away	56.4%
Last Home	43.6%
Last Away	56.4%

Timing - Goal Time
0-15 min	41.3%
16-30 min	44.1%
31-45 min	44.1%

Timing - Half Goals
Goal in first half	67.2%
Goal in second half	73.0%

Specials
win_and_gg	Home: 9.2% \| Away: 20.1%
win_and_over	Home + Over 2.5: 10.5% \| Away + Over 2.5: 28.3%
draw_no_bet	Home: 35.5% \| Away: 64.5%

Advanced
penalty_awarded	Yes: 19.6% \| No: 80.4%
red_card	Yes: 12.2% \| No: 87.8%
method_of_victory	Regular time: 97.0% \| Extra time: 2.0% \| Penalties: 1.0%

Approximate bookmaker decimal odds use a fixed 6.0% margin.

Approx. Odds - Match Result (1X2)
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
2	45.8%	2.19	2.06
X	29.1%	3.44	3.24
1	25.2%	3.98	3.75

Approx. Odds - Double Chance
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
X2	74.8%	1.34	1.26
12	70.9%	1.41	1.33
1X	54.2%	1.84	1.74

Approx. Odds - Both Teams To Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
NG	53.8%	1.86	1.75
GG	46.2%	2.16	2.04

Approx. Odds - Goals - Over/Under
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Over 0.5	91.1%	1.10	1.04
Over 1.5	69.6%	1.44	1.35
Under 2.5	56.4%	1.77	1.67
Over 2.5	43.6%	2.29	2.16
Over 3.5	22.6%	4.43	4.18

Approx. Odds - Goals - Exact Totals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
2	26.0%	3.84	3.62
1	21.5%	4.65	4.39
3	21.0%	4.76	4.49
4	12.7%	7.86	7.41
5+	9.9%	10.14	9.57
0	8.9%	11.27	10.63

Approx. Odds - Goals - Team Goals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Away Over 0.5	78.3%	1.28	1.20
Home Over 0.5	59.0%	1.69	1.60
Away Over 1.5	45.2%	2.21	2.09
Home Over 1.5	22.5%	4.45	4.20

Approx. Odds - Correct Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
0-1	13.6%	7.36	6.95
1-1	12.1%	8.26	7.79
0-2	10.4%	9.63	9.08
1-2	9.3%	10.79	10.18
0-0	8.9%	11.27	10.63
1-0	7.9%	12.63	11.92
2-1	5.4%	18.51	17.47
0-3	5.3%	18.88	17.81

Lineups are not published yet for this match in ESPN feeds.

2026-05-04 21:45 EESTAS Roma vs FiorentinaMon, May 4th at 2:45 PM EDT

Last 25 Games Played - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-25	Bologna	Away	W	2-0	737114
2026-04-18	Atalanta	Home	D	1-1	737108
2026-04-10	Pisa	Home	W	3-0	737094
2026-04-05	Internazionale	Away	L	2-5	737090
2026-03-22	Lecce	Home	W	1-0	737078
2026-03-19	Bologna	Home	L	3-4	401862874
2026-03-15	Como	Away	L	1-2	737064
2026-03-12	Bologna	Away	D	1-1	401862871
2026-03-08	Genoa	Away	L	1-2	737058
2026-03-01	Juventus	Home	D	3-3	737046
2026-02-22	Cremonese	Home	W	3-0	737035
2026-02-15	Napoli	Away	D	2-2	737030
2026-02-09	Cagliari	Home	W	2-0	737014
2026-02-02	Udinese	Away	L	0-1	737008
2026-01-29	Panathinaikos	Away	D	1-1	757929
2026-01-25	AC Milan	Home	D	1-1	737003
2026-01-22	VfB Stuttgart	Home	W	2-0	757920
2026-01-18	Torino	Away	W	2-0	736990
2026-01-13	Torino	Home	L	2-3	759118
2026-01-10	Sassuolo	Home	W	2-0	736982
2026-01-06	Lecce	Away	W	2-0	736967
2026-01-03	Atalanta	Away	L	0-1	736954
2025-12-29	Genoa	Home	W	3-1	736946
2025-12-20	Juventus	Away	L	1-2	736939
2025-12-15	Como	Home	W	1-0	736925

Last 25 Games Played - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-26	Sassuolo	Home	D	0-0	737121
2026-04-20	Lecce	Away	D	1-1	737111
2026-04-16	Crystal Palace	Home	W	2-1	401862921
2026-04-13	Lazio	Home	W	1-0	737098
2026-04-09	Crystal Palace	Away	L	0-3	401862917
2026-04-04	Hellas Verona	Away	W	1-0	737091
2026-03-22	Internazionale	Home	D	1-1	737079
2026-03-19	Raków Czestochowa	Away	W	2-1	401862849
2026-03-16	Cremonese	Away	W	4-1	737065
2026-03-12	Raków Czestochowa	Home	W	2-1	401862846
2026-03-08	Parma	Home	D	0-0	737059
2026-03-02	Udinese	Away	L	0-3	737048
2026-02-26	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Home	L	2-4	401854534
2026-02-23	Pisa	Home	W	1-0	737040
2026-02-19	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Away	W	3-0	401854524
2026-02-14	Como	Away	W	2-1	737025
2026-02-07	Torino	Home	D	2-2	737020
2026-01-31	Napoli	Away	L	1-2	737007
2026-01-27	Como	Home	L	1-3	759115
2026-01-24	Cagliari	Home	L	1-2	736996
2026-01-18	Bologna	Away	W	2-1	736987
2026-01-11	AC Milan	Home	D	1-1	736975
2026-01-07	Lazio	Away	D	2-2	736966
2026-01-04	Cremonese	Home	W	1-0	736957
2025-12-27	Parma	Away	L	0-1	736953

Last 15 Home Games - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-18	Atalanta	Home	D	1-1	737108
2026-04-10	Pisa	Home	W	3-0	737094
2026-03-22	Lecce	Home	W	1-0	737078
2026-03-19	Bologna	Home	L	3-4	401862874
2026-03-01	Juventus	Home	D	3-3	737046
2026-02-22	Cremonese	Home	W	3-0	737035
2026-02-09	Cagliari	Home	W	2-0	737014
2026-01-25	AC Milan	Home	D	1-1	737003
2026-01-22	VfB Stuttgart	Home	W	2-0	757920
2026-01-13	Torino	Home	L	2-3	759118
2026-01-10	Sassuolo	Home	W	2-0	736982
2025-12-29	Genoa	Home	W	3-1	736946
2025-12-15	Como	Home	W	1-0	736925
2025-11-30	Napoli	Home	L	0-1	736913
2025-11-27	FC Midtjylland	Home	W	2-1	757876

Last 15 Away Games - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-20	Lecce	Away	D	1-1	737111
2026-04-09	Crystal Palace	Away	L	0-3	401862917
2026-04-04	Hellas Verona	Away	W	1-0	737091
2026-03-19	Raków Czestochowa	Away	W	2-1	401862849
2026-03-16	Cremonese	Away	W	4-1	737065
2026-03-02	Udinese	Away	L	0-3	737048
2026-02-19	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Away	W	3-0	401854524
2026-02-14	Como	Away	W	2-1	737025
2026-01-31	Napoli	Away	L	1-2	737007
2026-01-18	Bologna	Away	W	2-1	736987
2026-01-07	Lazio	Away	D	2-2	736966
2025-12-27	Parma	Away	L	0-1	736953
2025-12-18	Lausanne Sports	Away	L	0-1	758062
2025-12-06	Sassuolo	Away	L	1-3	736915
2025-11-30	Atalanta	Away	L	0-2	736910

Pre-Match Lineups

AS Roma (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Fiorentina (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Context Signals Used In Model

Metric	Home	Away
Standing Position	6 / 20	15 / 20
Points (PPG)	61.0 (1.79)	37.0 (1.09)
Team Morale	81.5 / 100	60.1 / 100
Players Morale	66.8 / 100	49.3 / 100
Most Formations Played	3-4-2-1 (19), 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1)	4-3-3 (13), 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)
Expected Goals (model)	1.96	1.12
Avg Shots On Target (last 15)	3.87	3.80
Avg Possession % (last 15)	51.03%	51.27%
Avg 1st Half Goals (last 15)	0.87	0.40
Avg 2nd Half Goals (last 15)	0.87	0.53
Avg Goals (last 15)	1.73	0.93
Avg Yellow Cards (last 15)	1.53	2.40
Avg Red Cards (last 15)	0.07	0.07
Avg Corners (last 15)	4.60	4.27
Avg Shots On Target (season)	3.65	3.56
Avg Possession % (season)	48.24%	48.06%
Avg 1st Half Goals (season)	0.76	0.38
Avg 2nd Half Goals (season)	0.76	0.50
Avg Yellow Cards (season)	1.47	2.25
Avg Red Cards (season)	0.06	0.06
Avg Corners (season)	4.35	4.00

Odds Snapshot

1X2 Odds Snapshot
Provider	DraftKings \| O/U line: 2.5
1 (Home)	-175
X (Draw)	+295
2 (Away)	+425

Top Head-to-Head Bets (Per Match Combinations)

#	Combination Legs	Combined Probability	Combined Decimal Odds	Volatility
1	Over 2.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + GG (Both Teams To Score)	34.5%	2.59	medium
2	Over 2.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + 1 (Match Result (1X2))	34.4%	2.59	medium
3	Over 1.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + X2 (Double Chance)	34.2%	2.60	medium

Hedged Pair Suggestions

#	Primary Combo	Hedge Combo	Stake Split (Primary/Hedge)	Worst-Case Return	Coverage Probability
1	Over 2.5 + GG	Under 2.5 + NG	50.0% / 50.0%	-1.00	51.5%
2	Over 2.5 + 1	Under 2.5 + X2	50.0% / 50.0%	-1.00	51.5%

Head-to-Head Betting Probabilities

Match Result (1X2)
1	57.9%
X	21.9%
2	20.1%

Double Chance
1X	79.9%
12	78.1%
X2	42.1%

Head-to-Head Signal
sample_size	3.00
confidence	65.2%
result_balance	56.1%
margin_avg	-0.10
draw_rate	0.0%
goals_avg	2.90
same_venue_share	38.0%
draw_shift	-0.01

Both Teams To Score
GG	58.0%
NG	42.0%

Goals - Over/Under
Over 0.5	95.4%
Over 1.5	81.2%
Over 2.5	59.5%
Over 3.5	37.1%
Under 2.5	40.5%

Goals - Milestones
1+	95.4%
2+	81.2%
3+	59.5%
4+	37.1%

Goals - Exact Totals
0	4.6%
1	14.1%
2	21.8%
3	22.4%
4	17.2%
5+	19.8%

Goals - Team Goals
Home Over 0.5	85.9%
Home Over 1.5	58.2%
Away Over 0.5	67.5%
Away Over 1.5	31.0%

Handicap - Asian
Home -1.0	win: 33.5% \| push: 23.2% \| lose: 43.3%
Home -0.5	win: 56.7% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 43.3%
Home +0.5	win: 78.5% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 21.5%
Home +1.5	win: 91.9% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 8.1%

Handicap - European
Line -1	1: 33.5% \| X: 23.2% \| 2: 43.3%
Line +0	1: 56.7% \| X: 21.8% \| 2: 21.5%
Line +1	1: 78.5% \| X: 13.3% \| 2: 8.1%

Correct Score (Top Outcomes)
1-1	10.1%
2-1	9.9%
1-0	9.0%
2-0	8.8%
3-1	6.4%
3-0	5.7%
1-2	5.7%
2-2	5.6%

Half / Full Time
1/1	36.6%
1/X	4.8%
1/2	1.6%
X/1	17.0%
X/X	12.2%
X/2	7.7%
2/1	3.2%
2/X	4.8%
2/2	12.2%

Cards - Total
Over 2.5	78.0%
Over 3.5	59.3%
Under 4.5	60.2%

Cards - Milestones
2+ yellows	91.6%
3+ cards	78.0%
4+ cards	59.3%

Cards - Team Expected
home_expected	2.08
away_expected	2.08

Corners - Total
Over 8.5	41.3%
Over 9.5	28.7%
Under 10.5	81.5%

Corners - Team Expected
home_expected	4.73
away_expected	3.38

Corners - First/Last
Home	58.3%
Away	41.7%
Last Home	58.3%
Last Away	41.7%

Timing - Goal Time
0-15 min	49.2%
16-30 min	52.3%
31-45 min	52.3%

Timing - Half Goals
Goal in first half	75.8%
Goal in second half	81.1%

Specials
win_and_gg	Home: 28.8% \| Away: 11.9%
win_and_over	Home + Over 2.5: 38.9% \| Away + Over 2.5: 13.4%
draw_no_bet	Home: 74.2% \| Away: 25.8%

Advanced
penalty_awarded	Yes: 24.9% \| No: 75.1%
red_card	Yes: 12.2% \| No: 87.8%
method_of_victory	Regular time: 97.0% \| Extra time: 2.0% \| Penalties: 1.0%

Approximate bookmaker decimal odds use a fixed 6.0% margin.

Approx. Odds - Match Result (1X2)
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1	57.9%	1.73	1.63
X	21.9%	4.56	4.30
2	20.1%	4.96	4.68

Approx. Odds - Double Chance
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1X	79.9%	1.25	1.18
12	78.1%	1.28	1.21
X2	42.1%	2.38	2.24

Approx. Odds - Both Teams To Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
GG	58.0%	1.72	1.63
NG	42.0%	2.38	2.25

Approx. Odds - Goals - Over/Under
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Over 0.5	95.4%	1.05	1.00
Over 1.5	81.2%	1.23	1.16
Over 2.5	59.5%	1.68	1.59
Under 2.5	40.5%	2.47	2.33
Over 3.5	37.1%	2.70	2.54

Approx. Odds - Goals - Exact Totals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
3	22.4%	4.47	4.22
2	21.8%	4.59	4.33
5+	19.8%	5.04	4.76
4	17.2%	5.80	5.47
1	14.1%	7.07	6.67
0	4.6%	21.79	20.56

Approx. Odds - Goals - Team Goals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Home Over 0.5	85.9%	1.16	1.10
Away Over 0.5	67.5%	1.48	1.40
Home Over 1.5	58.2%	1.72	1.62
Away Over 1.5	31.0%	3.23	3.05

Approx. Odds - Correct Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1-1	10.1%	9.90	9.34
2-1	9.9%	10.12	9.55
1-0	9.0%	11.13	10.50
2-0	8.8%	11.38	10.73
3-1	6.4%	15.51	14.63
3-0	5.7%	17.44	16.45
1-2	5.7%	17.62	16.62
2-2	5.6%	18.00	16.98

Lineups are not published yet for this match in ESPN feeds.

Portuguese Primeira Liga1 matches

League Standings

Pos	Team	GP	Pts	W	D	L	GD	GF:GA
1	FC Porto	32	85	27	4	1	49	64:15
2	Benfica	32	76	22	10	0	47	69:22
3	Sporting CP	31	73	22	7	2	55	77:22
4	Braga	32	57	16	9	7	28	60:32
5	FC Famalicao	32	52	14	10	8	12	41:29
6	Gil Vicente	32	50	13	11	8	14	46:32
7	Moreirense	32	42	12	6	14	-10	37:47
8	Vitória de Guimaraes	31	42	12	6	13	-5	38:43
9	Estoril	32	38	10	8	14	-1	52:53
10	Alverca	32	38	10	8	14	-16	34:50
11	Arouca	32	36	10	6	16	-21	41:62
12	Rio Ave	32	35	8	11	13	-19	33:52
13	Santa Clara	32	33	8	9	15	-10	30:40
14	C.D. Nacional	32	31	8	7	17	-8	35:43
15	Estrela	32	28	6	10	16	-18	36:54
16	Casa Pia	32	26	5	11	16	-27	29:56
17	Tondela	32	25	5	10	17	-28	24:52
18	AVS	32	17	2	11	19	-42	24:66

2026-05-04 22:15 EESTSporting CP vs Vitória de GuimaraesMon, May 4th at 3:15 PM EDT

Last 25 Games Played - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-29	Tondela	Home	D	2-2	750478
2026-04-26	AVS	Away	D	1-1	750522
2026-04-22	FC Porto	Away	D	0-0	401854108
2026-04-19	Benfica	Home	L	1-2	750512
2026-04-15	Arsenal	Away	D	0-0	401862890
2026-04-11	Estrela	Away	W	1-0	750498
2026-04-07	Arsenal	Home	L	0-1	401862888
2026-04-03	Santa Clara	Home	W	4-2	750495
2026-03-22	Alverca	Away	W	4-1	750480
2026-03-17	Bodo/Glimt	Home	W	5-0	401862584
2026-03-11	Bodo/Glimt	Away	L	0-3	401862583
2026-03-07	Braga	Away	D	2-2	750469
2026-03-03	FC Porto	Home	W	1-0	401854107
2026-02-27	Estoril	Home	W	3-0	750459
2026-02-21	Moreirense	Away	W	3-0	750445
2026-02-15	FC Famalicao	Home	W	1-0	750439
2026-02-09	FC Porto	Away	D	1-1	750432
2026-02-05	AVS	Home	W	3-2	401842403
2026-02-01	C.D. Nacional	Home	W	2-1	750418
2026-01-28	Athletic Club	Away	W	3-2	757781
2026-01-24	Arouca	Away	W	2-1	750409
2026-01-20	Paris Saint-Germain	Home	W	2-1	757768
2026-01-16	Casa Pia	Home	W	3-0	750405
2026-01-02	Gil Vicente	Away	D	1-1	750393
2025-12-28	Rio Ave	Home	W	4-0	750385

Last 25 Games Played - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-25	Rio Ave	Home	W	2-0	750523
2026-04-18	Gil Vicente	Away	W	1-0	750507
2026-04-11	AVS	Away	D	1-1	750502
2026-04-03	Tondela	Home	W	5-0	750497
2026-03-21	Benfica	Away	L	0-3	750481
2026-03-14	FC Famalicao	Home	L	1-2	750479
2026-03-08	Santa Clara	Away	L	0-2	750468
2026-02-28	Alverca	Home	D	1-1	750456
2026-02-21	Braga	Away	L	2-3	750452
2026-02-14	Estrela	Home	W	2-1	750437
2026-02-07	Arouca	Away	L	2-3	750434
2026-01-30	Moreirense	Home	W	1-0	750423
2026-01-24	Estoril	Away	L	2-4	750413
2026-01-18	FC Porto	Home	L	0-1	750399
2026-01-02	C.D. Nacional	Home	W	2-1	750390
2025-12-28	Casa Pia	Away	D	0-0	750383
2025-12-23	Sporting CP	Home	L	1-4	750372
2025-12-17	AVS	Home	L	0-1	762054
2025-12-13	Rio Ave	Away	W	1-0	750364
2025-12-08	Gil Vicente	Home	D	0-0	750362
2025-11-28	AVS	Home	W	4-0	750353
2025-11-22	Mortágua	Home	W	4-0	760096
2025-11-08	Tondela	Away	W	1-0	750343
2025-11-01	Benfica	Home	L	0-3	750330
2025-10-26	FC Famalicao	Away	L	0-2	750322

Last 15 Home Games - Home Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-29	Tondela	Home	D	2-2	750478
2026-04-19	Benfica	Home	L	1-2	750512
2026-04-07	Arsenal	Home	L	0-1	401862888
2026-04-03	Santa Clara	Home	W	4-2	750495
2026-03-17	Bodo/Glimt	Home	W	5-0	401862584
2026-03-03	FC Porto	Home	W	1-0	401854107
2026-02-27	Estoril	Home	W	3-0	750459
2026-02-15	FC Famalicao	Home	W	1-0	750439
2026-02-05	AVS	Home	W	3-2	401842403
2026-02-01	C.D. Nacional	Home	W	2-1	750418
2026-01-20	Paris Saint-Germain	Home	W	2-1	757768
2026-01-16	Casa Pia	Home	W	3-0	750405
2025-12-28	Rio Ave	Home	W	4-0	750385
2025-12-13	AVS	Home	W	6-0	750366
2025-11-30	Estrela	Home	W	4-0	750346

Last 15 Away Games - Away Team

Date	Opponent	Venue	Result	Score	Event
2026-04-18	Gil Vicente	Away	W	1-0	750507
2026-04-11	AVS	Away	D	1-1	750502
2026-03-21	Benfica	Away	L	0-3	750481
2026-03-08	Santa Clara	Away	L	0-2	750468
2026-02-21	Braga	Away	L	2-3	750452
2026-02-07	Arouca	Away	L	2-3	750434
2026-01-24	Estoril	Away	L	2-4	750413
2025-12-28	Casa Pia	Away	D	0-0	750383
2025-12-13	Rio Ave	Away	W	1-0	750364
2025-11-08	Tondela	Away	W	1-0	750343
2025-10-26	FC Famalicao	Away	L	0-2	750322
2025-10-19	União Lamas	Away	W	1-0	759158
2025-09-28	Alverca	Away	L	0-2	750300
2025-09-14	Estrela	Away	W	2-0	750282
2025-08-23	Moreirense	Away	L	0-2	750269

Pre-Match Lineups

Sporting CP (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Vitória de Guimaraes (formation: N/A)

No starting XI posted yet.

Context Signals Used In Model

Metric	Home	Away
Standing Position	3 / 18	8 / 18
Points (PPG)	73.0 (2.35)	42.0 (1.35)
Team Morale	99.7 / 100	64.7 / 100
Players Morale	81.8 / 100	53.1 / 100
Most Formations Played	4-2-3-1 (23), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1)	4-2-3-1 (18), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2)
Expected Goals (model)	2.19	1.10
Avg Shots On Target (last 15)	5.40	4.13
Avg Possession % (last 15)	54.51%	49.81%
Avg 1st Half Goals (last 15)	0.60	0.67
Avg 2nd Half Goals (last 15)	1.07	0.60
Avg Goals (last 15)	1.67	1.27
Avg Yellow Cards (last 15)	1.80	2.53
Avg Red Cards (last 15)	0.00	0.07
Avg Corners (last 15)	5.87	3.87
Avg Shots On Target (season)	4.72	4.25
Avg Possession % (season)	51.35%	44.11%
Avg 1st Half Goals (season)	0.60	1.00
Avg 2nd Half Goals (season)	1.08	0.62
Avg Yellow Cards (season)	1.96	2.00
Avg Red Cards (season)	0.08	0.00
Avg Corners (season)	5.92	3.00

Odds Snapshot

1X2 Odds Snapshot
Provider	DraftKings \| O/U line: 3.5
1 (Home)	-360
X (Draw)	+500
2 (Away)	+800

Top Head-to-Head Bets (Per Match Combinations)

#	Combination Legs	Combined Probability	Combined Decimal Odds	Volatility
1	Home Over 1.5 (Goals - Team Goals) + GG (Both Teams To Score)	38.2%	2.34	medium
2	Over 2.5 (Goals - Over/Under) + GG (Both Teams To Score)	37.9%	2.35	medium
3	12 (Double Chance) + Over 3.5 (Goals - Over/Under)	34.4%	2.60	medium

Hedged Pair Suggestions

#	Primary Combo	Hedge Combo	Stake Split (Primary/Hedge)	Worst-Case Return	Coverage Probability
1	Over 2.5 + GG	Under 2.5 + NG	50.0% / 50.0%	-1.00	52.6%

Head-to-Head Betting Probabilities

Match Result (1X2)
1	67.0%
X	17.7%
2	15.3%

Double Chance
1X	84.7%
12	82.3%
X2	33.0%

Head-to-Head Signal
sample_size	3.00
confidence	65.2%
result_balance	78.1%
margin_avg	1.96
draw_rate	21.9%
goals_avg	4.52
same_venue_share	38.0%
draw_shift	-0.01

Both Teams To Score
GG	59.3%
NG	40.7%

Goals - Over/Under
Over 0.5	96.2%
Over 1.5	84.0%
Over 2.5	63.9%
Over 3.5	41.8%
Under 2.5	36.1%

Goals - Milestones
1+	96.2%
2+	84.0%
3+	63.9%
4+	41.8%

Goals - Exact Totals
0	3.7%
1	12.2%
2	20.1%
3	22.1%
4	18.2%
5+	23.6%

Goals - Team Goals
Home Over 0.5	88.8%
Home Over 1.5	64.3%
Away Over 0.5	66.8%
Away Over 1.5	30.1%

Handicap - Asian
Home -1.0	win: 39.3% \| push: 22.8% \| lose: 37.8%
Home -0.5	win: 62.1% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 37.8%
Home +0.5	win: 81.9% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 18.1%
Home +1.5	win: 93.3% \| push: 0.0% \| lose: 6.6%

Handicap - European
Line -1	1: 39.3% \| X: 22.8% \| 2: 37.8%
Line +0	1: 62.1% \| X: 19.8% \| 2: 18.1%
Line +1	1: 81.9% \| X: 11.5% \| 2: 6.6%

Correct Score (Top Outcomes)
2-1	9.8%
1-1	9.0%
2-0	8.9%
1-0	8.1%
3-1	7.2%
3-0	6.5%
2-2	5.4%
1-2	4.9%

Half / Full Time
1/1	41.2%
1/X	4.5%
1/2	1.4%
X/1	17.5%
X/X	10.8%
X/2	6.5%
2/1	3.5%
2/X	4.5%
2/2	10.2%

Cards - Total
Over 2.5	79.0%
Over 3.5	60.6%
Under 4.5	58.8%

Cards - Milestones
2+ yellows	92.0%
3+ cards	79.0%
4+ cards	60.6%

Cards - Team Expected
home_expected	2.12
away_expected	2.12

Corners - Total
Over 8.5	43.7%
Over 9.5	30.9%
Under 10.5	79.7%

Corners - Team Expected
home_expected	5.05
away_expected	3.24

Corners - First/Last
Home	60.9%
Away	39.1%
Last Home	60.9%
Last Away	39.1%

Timing - Goal Time
0-15 min	51.6%
16-30 min	54.6%
31-45 min	54.6%

Timing - Half Goals
Goal in first half	78.0%
Goal in second half	83.1%

Specials
win_and_gg	Home: 32.6% \| Away: 10.6%
win_and_over	Home + Over 2.5: 45.1% \| Away + Over 2.5: 11.7%
draw_no_bet	Home: 81.4% \| Away: 18.6%

Advanced
penalty_awarded	Yes: 26.6% \| No: 73.4%
red_card	Yes: 12.2% \| No: 87.8%
method_of_victory	Regular time: 97.0% \| Extra time: 2.0% \| Penalties: 1.0%

Approximate bookmaker decimal odds use a fixed 6.0% margin.

Approx. Odds - Match Result (1X2)
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1	67.0%	1.49	1.41
X	17.7%	5.65	5.33
2	15.3%	6.53	6.16

Approx. Odds - Double Chance
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
1X	84.7%	1.18	1.11
12	82.3%	1.22	1.15
X2	33.0%	3.03	2.86

Approx. Odds - Both Teams To Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
GG	59.3%	1.69	1.59
NG	40.7%	2.46	2.32

Approx. Odds - Goals - Over/Under
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Over 0.5	96.2%	1.04	1.00
Over 1.5	84.0%	1.19	1.12
Over 2.5	63.9%	1.57	1.48
Over 3.5	41.8%	2.39	2.26
Under 2.5	36.1%	2.77	2.61

Approx. Odds - Goals - Exact Totals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
5+	23.6%	4.24	4.00
3	22.1%	4.52	4.27
2	20.1%	4.97	4.69
4	18.2%	5.49	5.18
1	12.2%	8.18	7.72
0	3.7%	26.95	25.42

Approx. Odds - Goals - Team Goals
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
Home Over 0.5	88.8%	1.13	1.06
Away Over 0.5	66.8%	1.50	1.41
Home Over 1.5	64.3%	1.55	1.47
Away Over 1.5	30.1%	3.32	3.13

Approx. Odds - Correct Score
Selection	Model Prob	Fair Decimal	Bookmaker Decimal
2-1	9.8%	10.18	9.60
1-1	9.0%	11.16	10.53
2-0	8.9%	11.21	10.57
1-0	8.1%	12.29	11.59
3-1	7.2%	13.93	13.14
3-0	6.5%	15.33	14.47
2-2	5.4%	18.49	17.44
1-2	4.9%	20.27	19.13

Lineups are not published yet for this match in ESPN feeds.